As part of the BU Professorial Inaugural Lecture series, Professor Dimitrios Buhalis reflects on his 20 years of research into tourism management, strategy and the impact of Information Computer Technologies (ICT) on the industry.

Future of the travel industry, leisure travel, tourism, holiday travel and business travel trends. Package holidays and city breaks. Lifestyle and demographic changes older travellers, single travellers. Long haul and short haul, future of airline industry, rail, tour operators and cruise vacations. How travel customers are changing and influenced by social networking sites such as tripadvisor. Why market research can give wrong messages to marketing teams. Future of hotels and self-catering accommodation. Ecotourism, adventure holidays and experiences. Discount travel and budget operators quality and service balanced against price and value. Popular destinations and investment opportunities in the travel industry. Selling travel packages online and through new digital channels such as iphone apps, mobile devices, Twitter campaigns. Conference keynote lecture by Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon, author of 13 books on global trends, for Google client event (travel industry), London December 2010.

πηγή: www.globalchange.com

Istanbul (Turkish: İstanbul, historically also known as Byzantium and Constantinople) is the largest city in Turkey and fifth largest city proper in the world with a population of 12.6 million. Istanbul is also a megacity, as well as the cultural and financial centre of Turkey. It is located on the Bosphorus Strait and encompasses the natural harbour known as the Golden Horn, in the northwest of the country. It extends both on the European (Thrace) and on the Asian (Anatolia) sides of the Bosphorus, and is thereby the only metropolis in the world that is situated on two continents.

In its long history, Istanbul has served as the capital city of the Roman Empire (330 - 395), the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire (395 - 1204 and 1261 - 1453), the Latin Empire (1204 - 1261), and the Ottoman Empire (1453 - 1922). The city was chosen as joint European Capital of Culture for 2010.

Slogan: “The city of culture, the city where continents meet.”

The campaign features William Shatner, who is returning for his 12th year as priceline.com’s celebrity spokesman. The campaign includes TV, online and print advertisements created by Butler, Shine, Stern & Partners (BSSP).

The campaign is a further extension of Shatner’s run as the Priceline Negotiator.  This time, Shatner will be joined by a new sidekick named Big Deal.

Following the success of an earlier character, No Fee, who helped The Priceline Negotiator highlight priceline.com’s elimination of airline ticket booking fees in 2007, the company created Big Deal, a new Negotiator sidekick.

In an amusing and entertaining way, Big Deal helps The Negotiator demonstrate just how big the hotel deals are at priceline.com, how easy it is to get them and, most importantly, that priceline.com is the home of the ‘Big Deal’, said priceline.com’s chief marketing officer Brett Keller.

m-travel.com

In its six-month report, ATEM projects that foreign tourists visiting Greece will reach 15.5 million in 2010, on the condition that the world’s economy manages to exit the ongoing crisis, the price of oil hovers at around 80 US dollar per barrel and the euro/US dollar rate remains at around 1.45.

The group, however, said that its worse scenario envisaged a 1.7-pct growth in tourist arrivals this year, with the price of a barrel of oil at around 110 US dollar per barrel and the euro/US dollar rate at roughly 1.55.

ana.gr

Seven predictions from eMarketer CEO Geoff Ramsey. Ad dollars will continue to accelerate their move from traditional to digital, though aggregate media spending will fail to return to former levels. Marketers will be emphasizing deeper engagement and earned media.

Video. More marketers will increasingly embrace online video advertising, supported by the twin boom of video streams and video ad networks. Further support for video ad growth will come from sites that offer a deeper catalog of professional, premium video content, which will need to introduce hybrid plans that combine subscription fees with advertising.

Usage. The number of Internet users will begin to stabilize, as penetration reaches 66% of the US population, or 205.3 million people. Year-over-year growth will slow from 3.3% in 2009 to 2.36% in 2013, reaching 70% penetration in four years. Meanwhile, estimates of broadband penetration may change based on new guidelines from the FCC.

Social media. Marketers will demand better ways to manage and measure the impact of earned media-the additional unpaid exposure a brand gets when consumers share about the brand online. Search will get more social in several ways: by including real-time content in results (e.g., Twitter posts), adding information from social network friends to results, and using collective information from other Web users to hone search relevance. These trends will yield new ad formats that may incorporate friends’ viewpoints or interactions directly into the ad-and will raise new red flags among privacy advocates.

Convergence. The Consumer Electronics Show in early 2010 will usher in TVs with direct Internet connectivity, or with on-screen access to content portals such as YouTube, Blockbuster and Netflix. As online video becomes intertwined with the living-room TV experience, download and streaming services will take on a prominent role in the home entertainment ecosystem.

Mobile. Mobile ad spending will rise from $416 million in 2009 to $593 million in 2010 as more brands and agencies integrate mobile into their marketing mix. The fusion of mobile and social and the appetite for apps (among both consumers and brands) will continue unabated. In fact, location- and social-aware apps and utilities will be a key avenue for brands looking to engage consumers on the go.

Social commerce. Retailers will become more serious about trying to measure social media’s impact on sales. One question retailers will grapple with is how much a large fan base translates into sales or brand loyalty.

UK & Europe. Throughout Europe, the recession has helped increase the sophistication of Internet marketing. Though the final tally must wait until early next year, eMarketer expects UK online ad spending to show hard-won gains in 2009 and regain momentum in 2010 and beyond.

by emarketer.com

Europe may still be experiencing the effects of the recession, but online travel continues its upward march across the continent’s diverse and complex markets, according to travel industry research firm PhoCusWright Inc.

Changes in the economy and the travel industry have driven significant shifts in how consumers shop for and purchase travel. PhoCusWright’s European Online Travel Overview Fifth Edition analyzes the dynamics of online and offline travel distribution across Europe’s major travel markets.

Here are five predictions for the European online travel market in 2010 from the new report:

- Online travel will account for more than one-third of the total European travel market. While the total European travel market experiences a double-digit decline, online leisure and unmanaged business travel will in fact grow slightly in 2009. As effects of the recession linger into next year, consumers are increasingly shopping online for better deals. Online penetration will surge from 28% in 2008 to 34% by 2010.
- Priceline could become the largest pan-European online travel agency. Long in last place among the big four global OTAs (Expedia, Orbitz and Travelocity being the other three), Priceline has gained ground dramatically since the onset of the recession and especially through the success of its main European acquisition, Booking.com. Amid Orbitz’ stumbles and Expedia’s catch-up play with Venere, Priceline is poised to become the number two OTA globally and quite possibly the largest OTA in Europe (although Expedia may have something to say about that…).
- Metasearch will make it in Europe-finally. The highly fragmented European online travel shopping landscape-among OTAs and suppliers-could prove fertile ground for metasearch. Uptake of meta in Europe has lagged behind the U.S., but the growing incidence of online shopping is driving more consumers to visit metasearch sites when they plan their travel.
- Germany gains ground amid the recession. The lumbering giant of Europe’s online travel market is picking up plenty of regional market share. The country’s strong cultural affinity for travel is helping prop up demand as other European markets falter. Germany’s share of the European online travel market will jump from 17% in 2008 to 20% by 2011. Gute Reise!
- As larger markets mature, all eyes turn south-and east. The largest European travel market, the U.K., has over 40% online penetration. France and Germany are catching up. Now that the low-hanging fruit is gone, the online travel industry is looking to opportunities in less penetrated Southern and Eastern European markets. Emerging markets like Poland offer perhaps the most promising opportunities for growth.

by hotelmarketing.com

For the travel industry, 2009 is a year best forgotten, or as the chairman of Southwest Airlines, Gary C. Kelly, put it in a message to customers, it was “an annus horribilis.”

And the prospects for 2010? This is typically when the industry issues its forecasts for the year ahead, and those forecasts are often shaded with optimism about better times ahead. But this time, many travel executives and analysts are declining to make rosy predictions. Instead, they are offering a forecast that goes like this: Although some indicators show that travel has stabilized, with tentative signs of improvement in airline bookings and hotel reservations, this trend could falter if fuel prices increase or the fragile economic recovery takes a turn for the worse.

Because of the weak spots in the economy, Mr. Kelly notably contradicted some of his colleagues’ predictions about an increase in business travel at a recent airline investor conference.

“What we stated was we are not planning for a big return of business travel next year,” said Laura Wright, Southwest’s chief financial officer and senior vice president for finance. “To put that in context: we don’t know. We don’t have a long-term view of the booking curve.”

Southwest and other airlines have seen encouraging signs in recent months. Southwest carried nearly 8 percent more revenue passengers in November than in the same month last year, and Virgin America recently reported its first quarterly operating profit, earning $5.1 million in the third quarter. But comparisons with late 2008 can be misleading because of the steep drop in business travel that occurred a year ago as the financial crisis deepened.

“As we all know, the messages are really mixed on the economy, and employment numbers are still bad,” Ms. Wright said. “We’re assuming business travel is not just going to rebound next year. If it does come on stronger than we expected, we’ll be thrilled.”

That conservative assessment is in line with the most recent figures released by the Air Transport Association, the trade group representing the leading carriers in the United States. In October, passenger revenue at its member carriers fell 15 percent compared with the same month in 2008, the 12th consecutive month of declines, while the number of passengers flying dropped 3 percent.

Because previous forecasts were revised as the economy floundered and travel fluctuated in response to news headlines, the association has stopped issuing forecasts, choosing instead to report monthly results based on actual performance numbers. Commenting on the mixed outlook for 2010, John P. Heimlich, the trade group’s chief economist, wrote via e-mail, “What we do know is that rarely has such a cloud of uncertainty hung over any new year, and that better than 2009 isn’t saying a whole lot.”

Still, there has been some positive news in recent performance results. Perhaps the most concrete sign of improvement is that airline ticket sales handled by the Airlines Reporting Corporation increased nearly 7 percent in November - the first monthly increase since September 2008.

The company tracks transactions handled by roughly 17,000 travel agencies, including online outlets like Expedia, small retailers and travel management companies like American Express. While its figures do not include tickets purchased directly through the airlines, the company estimates it captures more than 50 percent of all air ticket transactions, and a larger percentage of business travel purchases. Besides the encouraging sales figures, the total number of transactions reported through the company in November rose 8 percent.

“We’re certainly pretty excited about the November numbers,” Allan Mutén, a company spokesman, said, noting that even though the dollar figures represented just one month of positive news, the number of ticket transactions has shown a slightly longer upward trend.

“Transactions had been going into the green for a couple months, but sales had remained in the red,” he said. “Now the total sales figure is in the green as well, which is very positive.”

Yet ticket sales, as well as other statistics, can be seen from multiple angles, leading to different conclusions about the travel industry’s health. More people may travel next year but continue to pay lower prices for plane tickets and hotel rooms, stimulating the economy but not necessarily pushing airline balance sheets into the black.

Brian Pearce, chief economist for the International Air Transport Association, which plans to release its 2010 forecast on Tuesday, said that although passenger numbers were moving in a positive direction, the global airline industry was still “a long way from seeing normal air travel and revenues.”

“It’s good for passengers but not so good for airlines trying to restore revenue,” he said. “We’re expecting airline revenues this year to be $80 billion lower than they were in 2008.”

Michael Boyd, president of the aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International, said he believed that American carriers were on much better financial footing than their foreign counterparts, but he did not see any economic indicators suggesting either business or leisure travel would rebound next year.

“Our data show that air passenger traffic will be down 3.5 to 4 percent nationally,” he said. “But if oil prices don’t get too frisky, we think the airline industry will do fairly well.”

The hotel industry, though historically more profitable than the airlines, faces a more daunting problem in attracting business. Scott Berman, hospitality practice leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, said he expected hotel occupancy levels to edge up to 55.8 percent in 2010, from 55.2 percent for 2009. The industry’s historical average is 63 percent.

Rates are expected to show an 8.8 percent decline in 2009, and to drop an additional 1.8 percent next year, Mr. Berman said. But he said his conversations with hotel executives indicated that reservations had been picking up in the last two months, an encouraging sign but one he did not want to overstate.

“I don’t want to paint this as we’ve done anything but turn a corner,” Mr. Berman said. “Anybody who suggests that the industry has come back is not correct.”

PhoCusWright’s European Online Travel Market Overview Fifth Edition shows a market in transition from the high growth rates of the past few years to a drop in the overall market and slowing growth in the online segment with no immediate relief in sight. The detailed analysis of individual markets shows evidence of significant differences in consumer behavior related to travel planning and purchasing among countries and regions covered. No single, homogenous market exists resulting in a number of challenges for companies active across Europe. The report provides the complete scope of information necessary to navigate these challenges travel companies are facing today and in the future.

Some of the key findings in the report show that the major European travel markets have undergone significant changes since the onset of 2008. Along with the rest of the globe, the economic softness that began to appear through the course of the year worsened abruptly in the fourth quarter of ‘08. The prosperous early months of 2008 were followed by a summer of astronomical fuel prices and a fall season starved of the usual business travel swell.

The downturn continues in 2009, and the data show a projected 10% decline for the total European market and Europe’s online bookings are expected to just barely avoid negative territory. Traditional airlines and car rental companies will be the hardest hit - both are projected to decline by 14%. Rail (-1.7%) and low-cost airlines (-2.8%) will fare the best among suppliers.

What the report also clearly shows is the significant difference in the level of online penetration in various key regions and markets.  With a 45% penetration rate in 2009, Scandinavia far exceeds the 28% average for Europe and has surpassed the U.K.. On the low end, the data show 20% penetration in Spain and 14% in Italy. Various market specific conditions and factors are responsible for this including Scandinavia having the world’s highest overall internet penetration and the market influence of traditional travel agencies in Italy.

What is interesting to note, is the indication of a correlation between these travel specific online penetration numbers and the general consumer behavior related to social media and social networking shown in a recent study on “European Social Media Trends - Behaviour, Impact, Evolution” by Globalwebindex.com (their slideshow is below). Notice especially #12 - #13 - #16 - #17 - #19 which highlight significant divergence in the social media engagement among different countries. Besides the structural differences in various markets it will be interesting to follow the development of the shift to online channels caused by non-travel specific behavior related to search, shop and buy.

Iab Social Media Research October 22nd 2010